Creating solutions in collaboration Annual report 2013


Quick and reliable predictions of the impact of measures on vegetation

20 July 2013BTO

For years now, KWR has conducted research into the processes that might explain the origin of the plant diversity in our nature reserves. This involves weighing factors like the soil characteristics, water balance and prevailing climate. In 2013, the knowledge collected through this research is used to build PROBE2, a climate-robust model for assessing the feasibility of vegetation objectives.



PROBE2 becomes operational in the summer of 2013. The model calculates the probabilities of the presence of vegetation types and converts them into probability maps. It takes into account the local soil characteristics, water management and the local climate, as well as the user’s desires concerning the vegetation types subject to calculation. Thanks to a smart programming technique, the calculation of a scenario for an area consisting of millions of computer units is completed within minutes. The PROBE2 model can therefore be readily applied to assess the consequences of climate scenarios and adaptation measures.

Climate-robust model PROBE2 produces fast and accurate results

Applied in the Delta Programme

PROBE2 is being applied, among others, in the government’s Delta Programme to calculate – on a national scale – the effects of different climate scenarios on the natural environment. The PROBE2 results are compared with those from 3,500 well located and precisely recorded vegetation descriptions of Dutch areas. The procedure shows that the results from the model agree well with the observations.

© 2018 KWR Watercycle Research Institute

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